History repeats itself: the 1968 Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia

In a previous blog post, I highlighted the parallels between Putin and Hitler. Continuing with the theme of “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” today’s blog post draws parallels between current events and the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. These parallels drive home the ultimate purpose of Putin’s war—old-fashioned imperialism—and underscore the costs of letting large countries use military strength to subjugate their neighbors. As I’ve said before, Putin knows his history well and is clearly using the most successful tricks from the past to try to get what he wants. Whether he gets away with it is up to us.

In 1968, Czechoslovakia began to liberalize under a new leader, Alexander Dubček. In a span of just a few months, he moved the country toward notably greater personal and economic freedom. Among other things, he rehabilitated purge victims of the 1950s, rolled back censorship, and allowed some public debates. The reforms were popular, and the people of Czechoslovakia called for more. Very quickly, a roadmap toward greater personal and economic freedom—dubbed simply the “Action Program”—was created. These developments were jointly called the “Prague Spring”.

Although Dubček emphasized that Czechoslovakia was not moving away from communism or the Warsaw Pact (the Communist equivalent of NATO that was dissolved in 1991), the reforms raised significant concern among Warsaw Pact countries. East German and Polish leaders felt particularly threatened because they faced similar pressures for greater economic and personal freedoms at home and likely thought their own populations were the most likely to follow Czechoslovakia’s example. A meeting of  Warsaw Pact countries was held without Czechoslovakia and the result was a thinly veiled ultimatum (dubbed the “Warsaw Letter”) to roll back the reforms and reinstate censorship. Dubček (politely) rejected the ultimatum. Following another meeting in late August, this time with Czechoslovakia’s participation, a resolution allowing the reforms to continue seems to have been reached.

Then, on August 20, 1968, Czechoslovakia was suddenly occupied by 7,500 tanks and as many as 500,000 Warsaw Pact troops. The troops were initially moved close to Czechoslovakia under the pretense of joint military exercises. The invaders claimed that they were responding to a request for assistance by Czechoslovak Party members. The USSR and its allies then proceeded to roll back the reforms while the tanks and troops continued to occupy Czechoslovakia. The 14th Communist Party Congress that took place on August 22 was declared invalid, and Czechoslovakia again plunged into oppression.

How did the world react to the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia? US and Western countries condemned the invasion but did little else, a (non-)response the USSR likely anticipated. Attempts by the UN Security Council to pass a resolution condemning the invasion were thwarted by the Soviet Union. The justification for the invasion of Czechoslovakia later became known as the Brezhnev Doctrine, which asserted that Moscow had the right to intervene—by any means necessary—in any country where a socialist government was being threatened.

I hope the parallels to the current situation are obvious. Like the USSR and its allies, Putin’s regime felt threatened by the prospect of a democratic Ukraine allied with Europe. Attempts to control Ukraine through energy dependence, economic threats, and political pressure failed. These failures prompted Putin to resort to military force: first, to annex Crimea, then to generate an armed conflict in Eastern Ukraine in 2014. Ultimately, in February 2022, Putin launched a full-scale invasion under similarly flimsy pretenses.

Allowing Russia to succeed in forcing Ukraine into its “sphere of influence” through inadequate support of Ukraine or, worse, explicit pressure to cede territory or otherwise capitulate to Russia, would bring about a “Putin Doctrine.” This doctrine would allow for “justified” invasions by simply labeling democratically elected governments as “illegitimate” or “Nazis,” baselessly claiming that group X is oppressed and needs help, or asserting that the invader feels threatened by the actual or potential membership of the country in question in a defensive alliance that has never attacked or threatened the invader. Is this the kind of world any of us would want to live in?

Of course, the future remains uncertain. Fortunately for democracy and unfortunately for Russia, Ukrainians have resisted far more effectively than Czechoslovakians did. This time, the West has responded with greater resolve to Russia’s invasion. Yet echoes of 1968 persist. Concerns about escalation voiced by the US back then resemble current fears about Russia’s actions in Ukraine, despite scant evidence that modern Russia would resort to nuclear weapons or attack a NATO member in response to increased military aid to Ukraine. Yet the reluctance to confront Russia is evident. Importantly, this reluctance is obvious not just to Russia but also to China, Iran, North Korea, and other potential aggressors. Far from making the world a safer place, Western hesitancy is amplifying global instability.