Ukraine is still far from doomed

In April of last year, Anastassia Fedyk and I published an op-ed called “Ukraine Is Far From Doomed,” where we compared the situation of Europe at the end of 1941—two years into World War II—to that of Ukraine. At that point, Germany, Italy, and Japan were at the peak of their military success, making the prospect of countering them seem daunting, if not impossible. I encourage you to read the original op-ed (no paywall) to get a sense of just how bleak things looked in Europe compared to Ukraine.

Importantly, on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, all of the arguments laid out in that article still very much hold. Over the past 10 months, Russia has made fairly marginal advances and has had no major breakthroughs. In fact, the main military breakthrough has been Ukraine occupying Russian territory in Kursk Oblast. For all intents and purposes, the military situation remains largely unchanged.

Unfortunately, there has also been no progress on what we emphasized as the most critical factor: the political will to help Ukraine defeat Russia. And the US appearing to capitulate to Russia’s demands and narrative before negotiations even started does not bode well. But we must remember—and emphasize whenever the opportunity arises—that the main problem with defeating Russia is a political one. Russia is a corrupt, near-totalitarian, aggressor state desperately trying to hide how weak its economy is. It is not Russia’s strength that has prevented its defeat but a lack of decisive Western leadership.

Given this leadership vacuum, we must continue to raise our voices and demand decisive action. Do not let any resignation you may feel take hold. A Russian victory in Ukraine would have far-reaching consequences, costing the world dearly for decades. Yet, despite the dangers, the situation is not hopeless. It is precisely at difficult moments that our efforts can have the greatest impact. Now is the time to push for the leadership and commitment needed to secure Russia’s defeat. Do not waver. Slava Ukraini!